Today is gut check day. The day after a small summit meeting between these United States and Russia. Things were said, promises made, doubts were raised. And in the end, we will see whether Russia can be honest and trustworthy going forward.
In years past these tete a tetes ended with Russia saying one thing and doing another. Not necessarily a direct recantation of what was agreed upon; instead it was doing something else somewhere else. Like a game of chess.
Russians do love their chess, and treat the world as one big board, complete with adversaries on each side, and pawns all over the place in the middle – taking hits, getting knocked over, and going off on short journeys on their own.
When Russia agrees to something, and stays true, it is usually something small. They will negociate down to the smallest quantum of responsibility. Maybe you are trying to get them to sacrifice a knight or bishop – they only want to give you a pawn (or nothing, actually).
When all is said and done, treaties signed, hands shook, pictures taken, that’s when you have to start paying attention to the rest of the board. Off in a forgotten about corner a piece is taking action, ready to mobilise and move. This is how (the Soviets) Russia play geopolitics. Russians always have their eye on something else when they are negociating with you.
What could that something else be? Not sure – somewhere in the Arctic region, drilling for oil or claiming it as sovereign land belonging to them. Or, increasing activity against Finland or Ukraine. They are already building a new submarine base in Tartus, Syria, and another one might look better in the Crimea (they annexed it for something), or along the Black Sea north of Sochi.
In the days to come we have something to look for. As I write Russian president Vladimir Putin has agreed to a ceasefire of sorts in Syria, and had a frank discussion with President Donald Trump about cybersecurity; notably cybercrime perpetrated against the US breaching computer networks in the presidential election. Look for Russia to start something new, or finish something that was on the other side of the board.
